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It’s crunch time in the English Premier League season as we play round 37 of a 38-match campaign. Arsenal are the long-term leaders and heavy favourites to hold their position. Could the Gunners win a Premier League and Champions League double? It’s certainly possible as we get into the thick of May. Manchester City remains the only threat to the crown.
Round 37 gets underway on Saturday morning in Birmingham, where Aston Villa host Liverpool. The FA Cup final dominates on Saturday, with Chelsea and Man City going head-to-head at Wembley at midnight Sydney time. Sunday night brings another six games from the top flight, with Arsenal vs Burnley on Tuesday morning.
Experienced football betting expert Frank Monkhouse returns with his data-led predictions and best bets on Premier League gameweek 37. He has six selections to consider, allowing followers to pick their favourite or aim higher with a weekend multi. He covers a range of markets and odds, ensuring there’s something for everyone.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool, Saturday, 5:00am AEST
The show begins on Saturday morning at Villa Park as Aston Villa take on Liverpool. The stadium will be packed to capacity, with many more following the action on Stan Sport and Flashscore. Unai Emery’s team hold the home advantage, but Arne Slot’s Reds are the pre-match betting favourites. Which club will come out on top and secure a win?
Aston Villa are winless in their last three Premier League starts, losing two and drawing the other. Going back further, Villa have taken just one win in their last five attempts. If that rotten run of form continues, they could lose out on a top-five finish and spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League. The home team lost 2-1 to Spurs when last at home.
It has been far from plain sailing for Liverpool this season, and they’ll soon have to hand the Premier League title over to Arsenal or Man City. The visitors are winless in two, but did win three of their previous five, including a 2-1 derby victory away to Everton. Both teams scored in each of Liverpool’s last six visits to Villa Park, making BTTS a strong pick in this renewal.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.44 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Aston Villa and Liverpool to score at least one goal each.
Man Utd vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday, 9:30pm AEST
Moving to Sunday nigt, and Premier League enthusiasts end the week with a stunning six-match programme. We begin at Old Trafford as Man Utd target a 19th win of the campaign when hosting Nottingham Forest in the early start. The Red Devils open third in the pecking order and will enjoy a return to Champions League football in 2026/27. They’re also unbeaten in four starts.
Nottingham Forest fans have endured a rollercoaster season. The Tricky Trees didn’t start particularly well, but did keep themselves in the league and reached the semi-finals of the Europa League. Vitor Pereira’s team arrive on a long unbeaten run, winning four and drawing two of six league matches. They finished level with Newcastle last Sunday.
What a match we have in store here as two in-form teams go head-to-head. There’s not too much to play for, with United in the top five and Forest clear of the drop. The head-to-head stats at Flashscore show a bet on over 2.5 goals landed in four of the previous six meetings. It was also a smart play when United beat Liverpool 3-2 when last at home.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62 (bet365)
Bet explanation: The winning team isn’t important here. You need Man Utd vs Nottingham Forest to produce more than two goals from both clubs combined.
Brentford vs Crystal Palace, Monday, 12:00am AEST
Moving to an interesting London derby, Brentford host Crystal Palace. The Bees and Eagles met at Selhurst Park back in November when Palace eased to a 2-0 victory, thanks to goals from Mateta and a Collins OG. Brentford won 2-1 when last hosting Palace, and home fans would dearly love another. I won’t be picking sides in this match.
Brentford are pushing for a European finish, while Palace are well clear of the relegation zone, meaning they’ll end in midtable. That means the points will matter more to Keith Andrews than the departing Oliver Glasner. Will that inspire a battling performance from the Bees? I think so, but I am happy to place my trust in the stats and trends, backing BTTS.
Focusing on past games involving Brentford and Crystal Palace, we see a bet on both teams to score landed in six of the last seven. That run goes all the way back to a 1-1 draw in the summer of 2022. Included in that period are three games at this venue, with a couple of 1-1 draws followed by a 2-1 home cheer. Add BTTS to your overnight Premier League multi.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.67 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Brentford and Crystal Palace score at least one goal each, your bet lands, regardless of which side takes the points.
Everton vs Sunderland, Monday, 12:00am AEST
I get stuck into the Everton vs Sunderland head-to-head stats on the Flashscore app to find my best bet at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. The numbers show Sunday night will be the third time the Toffees and Black Cats have met in this campaign. Both previous matches ended in draws, with a 1-1 at the Stadium of Light, followed by another two-goal share at this venue.
If you enjoy following the trends, you may fancy a third 1-1 finish in three games, targeting a winner at eye-catching odds. However, we don’t need to be too adventurous here. There is more than one way to make a profit from football gambling. My best bet in Liverpool is that Everton vs Sunderland ends with fewer than four goals scored by both clubs combined.
Backing under 3.5 goals would’ve secured you a profit in each of the last six. The most goals scored in a single match during that run is three. Everton have finished level in their last two league games, while Sunderland drew 1-1 at Molineux before holding Man Utd to a tense 0-0 finish at the Stadium of Light last Saturday. Add under 3.5 goals to your Sunday picks.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.33 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Sunday’s match at the Hill Dickinson Stadium must end with fewer than four goals scored.
Wolves vs Fulham, Monday, 12:00am AEST
Time is running down on Wolverhampton Wanderers’ painfully short return to the English Premier League. The locals are rock bottom of the league, and have been for many months. Stats of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 24 defeats, with 25 goals scored and 66 conceded, are to blame. Wolves are the lowest scorers in the division, with the second-most goals against.
Fulham started the week in 11th and as the betting favourites to beat Wolves, but they’re far from convincing. The Cottagers will end in mid-table and have nothing better to play for after losing each of their last two. Marco Silva’s squad lost 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium, before suffering a 1-0 home defeat to Bournemouth, little over a week ago.
It’s difficult to make a strong case for either side winning this match. It’s a typical end-of-term game where there’s not much at stake other than pride. The head-to-head stats give us a stronger basis to work from. After Fulham won their last two meetings with Wolves, I’m happy to shoot for the value about an away win. You can back Fulham to win as a single.
Tip: Fulham win @ 1.95 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You want to see Fulham beat Wolverhampton Wanderers for the third game on the bounce.
Newcastle vs West Ham, Monday, 2:30am AEST
My final pick from round 37 of the Premier League season comes from St James’ Park. Newcastle United host West Ham United. The Magpies have lost four of six, but did bag four points from their last two games. Eddie Howe’s side beat Brighton 3-1 when last at this venue before ending 1-1 at the City Ground.
Back-to-back defeats in their last two league games have put West Ham third from bottom and in the relegation zone. Time is running out for the Hammers to pull themselves clear of the danger area. They were well beaten at Brentford, losing three goals without reply. West Ham were unlucky to lose 1-0 at home to Arsenal last week, conceding a late goal.
Monday morning’s match means more to West Ham than their hosts, as the team from East London need three points to help them stay in the league. The visitors must go on the attack, but they take heart from a 3-1 win when hosting Newcastle late last year. Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Add BTTS to your weekend bets.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.44 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If both teams score for the second Newcastle vs West Ham match this season, you’ll enjoy a return.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.