Friday’s 0-0 draw with Zimbabwe in Durban was bitterly disappointing, as much for the timid performance as the result, though they did hit the woodwork twice and have a shot cleared off the line.
It means Benin are in the driving seat heading into the final round, but they must go to Nigeria, who’s nervy 2-1 victory over minnows Lesotho in Polokwane beings them very much back into contention.
That was a good result for Bafana, as it will keep the Super Eagles laser-focused ahead of what is a must win game for both them against Benin.
The three points lost in the Teboho Mokoena saga are now coming back to bite Bafana. With them they would be top of the table and have their fate in their own hands.
The criteria for classifying teams is as follows: greatest number of points, greatest goal-difference, most goals scored and head-to-head record. The latter two could be very important.
Here are the permutations going into Tuesday’s final round, assuming Bafana get the win they need against Rwanda to stand a chance of overhauling Benin. Any other result and they will fall short.
BENIN BEAT NIGERIA
Benin will qualify for their first ever World Cup.
BENIN AND NIGERIA DRAW
In this scenario, Bafana and Benin will be level on 18 points. Benin would maintain their +5 goal-difference. Bafana are currently on +3, meaning they would need to beat Rwanda by two clear goals to draw level with Benin. It would then come down to goals scored, with both sides currently on 12. Bafana would go to at least 14 (needing to beat Rwanda by two goals), meaning if Benin drew 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2, Bafana would be through. That is because if Bafana are level on points, goal-difference and goals scored with Benin, it comes down to head-to-head, and South Africa collected 2-1 and 2-0 wins over the west African side. A most unlikely 3-3 draw in Uyo in the above scenario would put Benin through on goals scored, assuming Bafana don’t score more than two goals.
NIGERIA BEAT BENIN
Bafana will qualify if they beat Rwanda. If they don’t, then Nigeria will qualify with a 1-0 win over Benin. They will be level with Benin on points (17), goal-difference (+4), goals scored (12) and head-to-head (2-2). However, the Super Eagles would advance on the away goals rule after they lost 2-1 in the first tie between the sides. If Nigeria win 2-1 then it would come down to Fair Play points and potentially the drawing of lots.