Why England are overwhelming favourites to continue brutal streak against Wales at Wembley

England players listen to instructions during a training session at St George's Park
England players listen to instructions during a training session at St George's ParkMartin Rickett / PA Images / Profimedia

When Wales arrive at Wembley Stadium for their friendly with England, they do so knowing that history is against them.

The Three Lions have only lost this fixture on 14 occasions dating back to the very first game in January 1879. 

Just one win for Wales at Wembley since 1945

Of those 14 games, only four have been won since the Second World War, and just one of those has seen the Dragons defeat England at Wembley.

That win came courtesy of a 45th-minute Leighton James penalty in the British Home Championship fixture way back in May 1977.

It was their first of any description since 1955, and only twice more in the May 1980 and May 1984 British Home Championship fixtures - in Wales - did they emerge victorious.

The last seven meetings have all been won by England, with a goals balance of 14 scored and just one conceded, and the Three Lions only have longer winning streaks against Luxembourg (nine) and Andorra and San Marino (both eight).

First meeting since 2022 World Cup

It's also the first time England have played Wales since a 3-0 win in the 2022 World Cup, and as if to emphasise the difficulties that the visitors face, Thomas Tuchel's side have won their last eight consecutive competitive games leading into this match.

Not since winning 10 in a row between September 2014 and October 2015 under Roy Hodgson have they achieved such a feat.

Furthermore, England have scored in each of their last 16 games across all competitions.

England v Wales - Recent head-to-head results
England v Wales - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Craig Bellamy, however, might take heart in England's underwhelming recent victories over Andorra - and the fact that the Three Lions have lost their last two friendlies: 1-0 vs Iceland in June 2024 and 3-1 vs Senegal in June 2025 - and use those as motivational tools for his own players, whilst being aware that if the hosts are on song, it could be a long night - just as Serbia found out recently.

Wales' last friendly win came in 2008

The Wales coach will also have to bear in mind that his side have lost two of their last three matches, despite losing just one of the previous 19 (W9 D9). Not since June 2023 have not lost back-to-back games. However, they're winless in each of their last 11 away friendly matches (D1 L10).

Their last friendly win - a 1-0 victory over Denmark - came courtesy of a goal from Bellamy in November 2008, and Wales have also failed to score in each of their last 10 friendlies since a game against Montenegro, some 938 minutes and counting. 

One player that's bang in form for the hosts is captain Harry Kane, but he will miss out as he is carrying a small injury.

They will be missing a player who has 18 goals already in all competitions during 2025/26 for Bayern Munich

Elliot Anderson likely to be key for the Three Lions again

Elliot Anderson will be another key player for the hosts after picking up the Man-of-the-Match award in both his debut appearance in the senior squad and in his second game.

He made the most successful passes (182) and successful long passes (10), won back possession most times (23), made the most tackles (five) and played the most forward passes (48) across those two games.

If ever there's a case to be made of a player being 'the first name on the teamsheet,' then Anderson's right up there on current form.

Of course, there will be those players who are disappointed to miss out, such as Jack Grealish, who is enjoying a renaissance with Everton this season.

However, there will be plenty of opportunities between now and when Tuchel names his squad for the World Cup 2026 for those out of favour now to stake their claims.

Tuchel mindful of injury situation

Tuchel will likely be mindful of the upcoming qualifier against Latvia, and could even instruct his players to take things a little easier than they might otherwise have done.

With Noni Madueke ruled out by injury, Bukayo Saka only just coming back from his own problem, and Jude Bellingham left out of the squad entirely, given that he can't be said to be fully fit at this stage despite his Real Madrid return, there's a clear enough logic behind any caution that the German coach may employ during this international break.

Were England to win, Tuchel will become the ninth England first-team coach to have won their first meeting with a fellow Home Nation, with only Don Revie (vs Northern Ireland in May 1975) failing to win any such fixture. 

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore